• The RBA has left the cash rate on hold – again. Considering the nosedive in commodity prices and mining investment, sluggish consumption growth and lacklustre employment figures, this comes as little surprise. Without the still bubbling housing market, the Australian economy would be in a right state. But a heated housing market does not make a strong economy, and loose monetary policy is creating an unstable foundation for the fast approaching new calendar year.

 

Behind the 8 Ball

  • There have been fourteen meetings since the RBA last made a change to the cash rate. Over this time the global economy moved from ‘running a bit below average’ to showing ‘moderate’ growth and the Australian economy largely followed suit. Despite this rhetorical improvement, there are a number of issues still facing the Australian context that are evidently so serious that the RBA has lapsed into a state of paralysis.

 

 /></p><p> </p><ul><li>The RBA is rightfully concerned. Australia has not only arrived at a cross roads, but has largely lost its direction for which way to head next. This confusion comes from an unwillingness to recognize that mining, the very lifeblood of the last two decades of prosperity, is coming to an end.</li><li>As the graph below shows, the commodity price index has been in marked decline since 2012 but considerably more so since the beginning of 2014. As Australia is a large commodity exporter, declines like this will have serious affects on national income. This means that the decline in prices is not only a concern for miners, who may very well be out of a job soon, but also for the non-mining sector.</li></ul><p> </p><p><img decoding=This update does not constitute financial advice and should not be relied upon as such. It is intended only to provide a summary and general overview on matters of interest and it is not intended to be comprehensive. You should seek professional advice before acting or relying on any of the content.

SHARE
Back to Insights and News

Related articles

All insights

Record housing sales return

Australia’s housing market has faced significant challenges in recent months, with higher borrowing costs and cooling property values impacting residential markets in some state capitals. But record housing sales now suggest the market is quickly regaining its footing. According to the latest Pain & Gain report from CoreLogic, Australian home sellers enjoyed unprecedented profitability and…
Read More

Will the rate cut bring back property investors?

The number of new loan approvals to property investors has fallen for the first time in almost two years, according to data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). As higher borrowing costs and cooling values in some state capitals affect the outlook for residential property, investors are deciding whether to hold off on purchasing…
Read More

What’s ahead for the housing market?

Australia’s housing sector is poised for modest price growth in 2025. Will this create opportunities or challenges for those looking to enter the market? According to PropTrack’s Property Market Outlook, national home prices will rise between 1% and 4% in 2025. This is slower than the 5.5% growth seen in 2024, as high interest rates,…
Read More