Spring has historically delivered bountiful results for Australian sellers. But there’s been a softening in the last few years, and 2026 in particular is pointing towards a poor harvest.
The RBA held the cash rate at 4.35% this month1, its second hold in a row after three rate rises earlier in the year. Governor Michele Bullock has warned another increase remains on the table if inflationary pressures persist, and the market being shaped by this uncertainty looks nothing like the usual seasonal script.
The numbers behind the season
Capital city auction volumes have fallen behind last year’s for nine consecutive weeks. The combined-capital clearance rate was sitting at 50% in mid-July2, a sharp comedown from July 2025, when Sydney and Melbourne posted their strongest winter clearance rates in a decade (69.1% and 68% respectively) on the back of expected rate cuts3.
Prices have also dipped, with PropTrack recording three consecutive months of national price falls through June4. Total listings are up 7.7% year-on-year, yet the share of new listings going to auction has dropped from around 45% in November 2025 to just over 30% in June 2026, as more vendors choose to negotiate via private treaty rather than risk a public campaign that doesn’t clear2.
As Add Valuer’s Belinda Botzolis puts it, “The modern property market is shaped far more by interest rates, supply levels and buyer sentiment than by the season printed on the calendar.”5 Buyers are more sensitive to market conditions, and vendors are more strategic. She flags that many vendors now choose to sell before the warmer weather begins, since a flood of spring stock can dilute buyer attention and soften prices. First National’s own reading agrees: a smaller buyer pool this spring hands buyers more choice and negotiating power, and sellers who don’t price competitively risk being overlooked.6
What this means for prospective buyers
Despite vendor caution and suboptimal market conditions, spring will still bring activity as the days warm and lengthen. For well-prepared buyers with a discerning eye and finance secured, the opportunity to seize a great asset at a great price is ripe.
For businesses looking to invest in residential or commercial property, this isn’t a wait-and-see market. It’s a be-ready-to-act one. The clients best placed aren’t necessarily the ones with the biggest budget. They’re the ones who aren’t held up by slow approval processes or lending criteria built around PAYG income rather than how a company-structure borrower actually operates.
Where Prime Capital fits
Across the board, our approach is built for moments like this: self-declared income, fast approvals and flexible terms that don’t leave clients waiting on paperwork a bank would need weeks to process. For clients on the hunt for the biggest opportunity this spring, Business Jumbo is the standout.
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Sources
- Reserve Bank of Australia, Monetary Policy Decision, 11 August 2026 (rba.gov.au)
- Cotality, Monthly Housing Chart Pack, July 2026, cited in Real Estate Today Australia, “The Spring Listing War Has Already Begun,” July 2026 (realestatetodayaustralia.com.au)
- “Spring Awakening: Why 2025 Could Be a Defining Season for Australia’s Property Market,” September 2025, (propertyupdate.com.au)
- PropTrack Home Price Index, June 2026, (realestate.com.au)
- Belinda Botzolis, Add Valuer, “The Death of the Spring Selling Season,” API Magazine, April 2026 (apimagazine.com.au)
- First National Real Estate, “Spring 2026 Outlook: What Buyers and Sellers Need to Know,” August 2026 (firstnational.com.au)
