• From the US producing more oil than Saudi Arabia, China becoming the World’s largest economy and Queen Elizabeth II becoming history’s longest serving monarch, 2015 looks sets to become a watershed year. With thanks to The Economist, we outline some very interesting observations for the new year to come.

 

American energy self-sufficiency

  • Less than a decade ago the concept of ‘peak oil’ and impending energy crisis was front page news. However new technologies like fracking, and renewed exploration activities have not only resulted in the USA achieving energy independence but in 2015 it will also produce more barrels of oil than Saudi Arabia and become a net exporter of energy products. Many aspects of international relations are built around American access to oil and whilst the shale-gas revolution will no doubt benefit consumers with lower bowser prices, the longer term shifts in geopolitical agendas may not be as helpful for global stability.

 

 /></p><p> </p><h2>Economic World Centre Shifts East</h2><ul><li>Whilst the centre of global political power has long been debated, new research from Danny Quah of the London School of Economics has produced metrics to calculate the dynamics of the global economic centre of gravity; the average location of economic activity across geographies on Earth. The calculations here take into account all the GDP produced on this planet. LSE found that in 1980 the global economy’s centre of gravity was mid-Atlantic. By 2008, from the continuing rise of China and the rest of East Asia, that centre of gravity had drifted to a location east of Helsinki and Bucharest. In 2015 it will reach Iran. Extrapolating growth in almost 700 locations across Earth, it predicts the world’s economic centre of gravity to locate by 2050 literally between India and China. Observed from Earth’s surface, that economic centre of gravity will shift from its 1980 location 9,300 km or 1.5 times the radius of the planet.</li><li>This has major policy implications. If soft power mirrors but lags economic power, then the source for global and political influence will be similarly gradually shifting east over the next 50 – 100 years. Policy formulation for the entire global economy, and global governance more generally, will no longer be the domain of the last century’s rich countries but instead will require more inclusive engagement of the east.</li></ul><p> </p><p><img decoding=This update does not constitute financial advice and should not be relied upon as such. It is intended only to provide a summary and general overview on matters of interest and it is not intended to be comprehensive. You should seek professional advice before acting or relying on any of the content.

SHARE
Back to Insights and News

Related articles

All insights

Record housing sales return

Australia’s housing market has faced significant challenges in recent months, with higher borrowing costs and cooling property values impacting residential markets in some state capitals. But record housing sales now suggest the market is quickly regaining its footing. According to the latest Pain & Gain report from CoreLogic, Australian home sellers enjoyed unprecedented profitability and…
Read More

Will the rate cut bring back property investors?

The number of new loan approvals to property investors has fallen for the first time in almost two years, according to data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). As higher borrowing costs and cooling values in some state capitals affect the outlook for residential property, investors are deciding whether to hold off on purchasing…
Read More

What’s ahead for the housing market?

Australia’s housing sector is poised for modest price growth in 2025. Will this create opportunities or challenges for those looking to enter the market? According to PropTrack’s Property Market Outlook, national home prices will rise between 1% and 4% in 2025. This is slower than the 5.5% growth seen in 2024, as high interest rates,…
Read More